Abstract: Changes in the international strategic environment will have a profound impact on China’s economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period. “De-structuration”, the most prominent feature of the current international strategic environment, is ushering the world into an “era of strategic anxiety” amid heightened instability and uncertainty. China confronts both short-term risks (e.g., intensifying great-power rivalry and shifting security landscape) and medium- and long-term challenges (e.g., securitization of economic matters) on its periphery. Overall, amid rising tensions to its east, Beijing has stabilized relations with its northern and western neighbors as it seeks to assuage the growing apprehension of nations to its south in a shifting regional landscape where security partnerships have been scrambled. Persistent global economic stagflation confronts China’s economy with a variety of external challenges, such as deglobalization, geopolitical conflicts, and great-power clashes. Science and technology race has entered a phase of structural adjustment, with the external tech environment characterized by institutional lock-in, rule preemption, and tiered/selective choices. Yet structural buffers remain, such as opportunities for development-oriented technological cooperation, diversified technological paths, and participation in international governance. China must effectively manage great-power competition, better align its domestic policy with international strategy, and pay equal attention to both development and security, in order to address the risks and challenges arising from this once-in-a-century global transformation.
Keywords: strategic environment, great-power competition, peripheral security, world economy, science and technology race
Author：SONG Dexing, ZHOU Fangyin, ZHAO Long, ZHANG Ming, and CAI Cuihong
Source: Song, D. X., Zhou, F. Y., Zhao, L., Zhang, M., & Cai, C. H. (2026). Outlook on China’s international strategic environment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Global Review, (2).
Publish Date: 2026/3/13
