Abstract：Artificial intelligence (AI), as a technology with dual effects of empowerment and disruption, is reshaping the paradigm of great-power competition and posing a challenge to the theoretical hypothesis of the “Thucydides Trap.” On the empowerment level, AI reinforces traditional power-political logic by enhancing military, economic, and strategic governance capabilities, thereby intensifying structural power competition among major powers in terms of technological resources, institutional rules, and narrative cognition. At the same time, the disruptive effects of AI manifest in blurring the boundaries of warfare, elevating the role of non-state actors, deepening interdependence in economic and security domains, and fostering collaboration among transnational technological communities, thus generating mechanisms such as economic symbiosis, security symbiosis, and community symbiosis that restrain major-power conflict. Case studies show that China-U.S. competition in the age of AI not only reflects the tensions of traditional power transition but also, due to the embeddedness of industrial chains, shared risks, and the buffering effects of technological communities, is unlikely to devolve into pure confrontation. Therefore, great-power relations in the AI era, to a certain extent, transcend the linear logic of conflict inherent in the “Thucydides Trap,” presenting a new paradigm of “symbiotic competition” characterized by the interweaving of competition and interdependence. In this context, China must proactively shape a healthy ecology of benign competition and cooperation by enhancing its autonomous technological capabilities, participating in global governance, and deepening international collaboration, so as to accumulate sustainable advantages within an embedded landscape.
Keywords: artificial intelligence; Thucydides Trap; empowerment-disruption effect; China-U.S. relations; symbiotic competition
Author: Cuihong Cai
Source: Cai, C. H. (2025). Beyond the Thucydides Trap? The Empowerment-Subversion Effect of Artificial Intelligence and the New Paradigm of Great Power Competition. World Politics Studies, 2025(4).
